Mansour Zarra Nezhad; maryam karimi kanouleh; salah ebrahimi
Abstract
Investigate the factors affecting the smuggling of goods as well as its effects on macroeconomic variables has been one of the most important issues in the field of macroeconomics. Examining this issue and its results has an important role in policy making in the field of goods smuggling. Considering ...
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Investigate the factors affecting the smuggling of goods as well as its effects on macroeconomic variables has been one of the most important issues in the field of macroeconomics. Examining this issue and its results has an important role in policy making in the field of goods smuggling. Considering this issue, the purpose of this article is to investigate the economic smuggling of goods as one of the obstacles to production using an empirical approach. Therefore, in this study, in addition to estimating the volume of goods smuggling in Iran using structural equation modeling during the period from 1350 to 1399, its impact on Iran's gross domestic product will also be investigated with a time series approach. The findings of this study showed that the average volume of goods smuggling in the period under review was about 22.53% of the official GDP. Also, based on other results of this study, smuggling as an obstacle to production has had a negative and significant impact on GDP in the 50-year period under investigation.
Mansour Zarra Nezhad; Elaheh Ansari; Masood Khoda Panah
Abstract
Information constitutes the main basis for decision making. Sometimes the amount of information obtained is so huge that the inappropriate use of unanalyzed information will lead to making wrong decisions. Defining practical indices and the quantification of quality indicators in different domains can ...
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Information constitutes the main basis for decision making. Sometimes the amount of information obtained is so huge that the inappropriate use of unanalyzed information will lead to making wrong decisions. Defining practical indices and the quantification of quality indicators in different domains can be of remarkable help to discover fundamental problems, set goals, and choose the best way to achieve them. Islamic economy could be one of these areas. In this study, through following scientific principles, the composite index of Islamic economy in Iran from 1995 to 2012 was defined and estimated. In fact, it is for the first time that a long-term performance of a country is examined. The results show that the absolute value of the index has not changed significantly in the course of 18 years under study, and there have been fluctuations in a short run. Reducing unemployment and inflation rates, promoting the culture of the using non-interest-bearing deposits (Gharz-ol-Hasane), as well as reducing bank interest rate comprise strategies for improving this indicator in Iran.
Mansour Zarra Nezhad; Sahar Motamedi
Volume 12, Issue 46 , October 2012, , Pages 101-116
Abstract
Considering the pivotal role of stock market in the process of economic development, this research focuses on the relationship between the variables of exchange rate, interest rate, oil price shock and overall price index of Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, we have applied three different methods ...
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Considering the pivotal role of stock market in the process of economic development, this research focuses on the relationship between the variables of exchange rate, interest rate, oil price shock and overall price index of Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, we have applied three different methods of Toda and Yamamoto causality test (1995), Granger vector error correction causality test (1987) and Pesaran, Shin and Smith’s (2001) Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The empirical findings show that there is a long-run relation between the variables of the stock price index, exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate and oil price shock. Based on Toda and Yamamoto causality test, there is a one-way causality from variables of exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rate to stock price index, and from stock price index, exchange rate and interest rate to inflation rate, as well as from interest rate to exchange rate. The results of Granger vector error correction test showed that there is a short run causality from exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rate to stock price index and a long run causality from exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate and oil price shock to stock price index.
